Mining gold is expected to become unprofitable by 2050, a fact that hasn’t received much attention on this subreddit during my month-long tenure here. Given that this is only three decades away, and considering that holding onto gold is typically a long-term investment strategy, what do you anticipate happening as we approach this critical timeline?
The scarcity of our gold reserves is a pressing concern. A group of scientists has established a definitive date for the depletion of this precious metal, which is a mere 27 years from now, in 2050. This conclusion has been reached jointly by the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (CREAF-UAB) and the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC). Their findings, published in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution, highlight a troubling trend: over the past century, the extraction of rare and scarce minerals has doubled, posing potential risks in environmental, economic, social, and geopolitical aspects.
This alarming situation stems from the fact that these artificial elements, which are increasingly used in the creation of items like sanitary products, train tracks, airplanes, and smartphones, demand more chemical components than what the Earth can naturally provide, such as leaves and tree trunks. This collection of chemical elements for man-made objects, scientifically termed the “human elementome,” is increasingly diverging from the requirements of the biological elementome, which pertains to nature.
The shift away from using naturally recycled materials like clay, stone, or lime, which existed in harmony with nature and the atmosphere, began in the 1900s. As one of the study’s authors, Jordi Sardans, notes, humans shifted towards relying more on rare earth elements. Initially, 80% of the elements we used came from biomass, according to the study. By 2005, this percentage had fallen to 32%, and if we persist along the same trajectory, it is predicted to decrease to 20% by 2050.
The implications are significant, with the majority of elements we rely on originating from non-biological sources. UAB professor Jaume Terradas emphasizes that sustaining the human element will become increasingly complex and risky, necessitating a more rational use of Earth’s limited resources.
Gold, known for its rarity, is unlikely to change in this regard anytime soon.
Global demand for gold peaked in 2022, with its supply remaining stagnant for nearly seven years. This raises concerns about the sustainability of gold mining by 2050. Although the history of human gold mining spans thousands of years, it appears that we may have reached peak gold mining, though the discovery of additional gold deposits could extend this timeline.
To address this impending scarcity, industry experts and concerned citizens are advocating for increased electronics recycling and the discontinuation of planned obsolescence, both for the sake of preserving gold and satisfying consumer needs. New technologies may also explore the use of more abundant metals like silver or copper.
If the world indeed runs out of mineable gold, several consequences are likely to unfold. The price of gold is expected to rise significantly due to the basic principles of supply and demand, unless there’s a sharp drop in demand for the metal. If you’re considering purchasing gold as a safe haven or an investment, it might be wise to do so before the impending reality of depleted gold mines is factored into the market.